Title : Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 dynamic : analytical interventions
The current COVID-19 pandemic is carried out by the fast spread of a new Coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) across the world. Well understanding this pandemic and its dynamic is important to guide policies in order to curtail the latter especially in the regions with weak economic and fragile healthcare systems such as West Africa. We formulated and used deterministic compartmental models to (i) assess the impact of measures reducing the transmission rate, on the epidemic dynamic in West Africa, (ii) the impact of measures reducing the probability of contact between infected and susceptible individuals, on the epidemic dynamic in West Africa. We developed expressions of the basic and control reproduction number and study the sensitivity and elasticity of the later with regard to and (isolation rate). Numerical results using the wave data of West African COVID-19 epidemic revealed that the basic reproduction number is 1.80. Through the sensitivity and elasticity analyses of the control reproduction number, we show that when a 40% reduction in the transmission rate of COVID-19 or a detection and isolation of 20% of infected individuals will help to reach the pic of the epidemic.
Keywords : Control reproduction number, sensitivity and elasticity analyses, transmission rate, detection and isolation.