Epidemiology, Malaria modelling, Vaccine, Infectious disease

An age-structure mathematical model to estimate the short and long-term impacts of vaccination on the transmission, burden and severity of malaria

Malaria remains a major public health challenge in tropical and subtropical regions, despite ongoing efforts to reduce its transmission. This research focuses on developing a deterministic age-structured mathematical model to study the dynamics of malaria over a 100-year period (2000-2100). The model captures the progression of malaria within both human and mosquito populations, with a particular emphasis on the effects of vaccination and mosquito control measures. The human population is divided into seven epidemiological compartments: susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infected, mildly symptomatic, severely symptomatic, hospitalized, and recovered. Additionally, the study examines three distinct sub-populations: unvaccinated individuals, those vaccinated with the first dose, and those who received a second (booster) dose.
The model integrates key factors such as vaccine waning efficacy over time and the protective effect of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in reducing mosquito-human interactions. Numerical simulations will be conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies and ITN coverage on malaria transmission rates, morbidity, and mortality. This analysis aims to provide insights into how vaccination programs and control measures can be optimized to mitigate malaria in endemic regions. The findings from this study will be valuable for informing public health policies and improving malaria control and elimination strategies.